There is really only one aspect to the NCAA Tournament that can be considered "Madness". That is the crazy notion that someone can actually predict what can happen. There are simply just too many weird moments that can arise during a do or die game situation. A bad shooting night might get a team eliminated, bad calls by the officials might get a team eliminated, food poisoning from bad General Tao's Chicken (okay, maybe this isn't as likely to happen, but I'm not ruling it out) will destroy your digestive system and might get a team eliminated. The fact of the matter is that too many quirky anomalies can happen, so claiming to "know" who is going to win is just stupid. The best team may not necessarily win, but the team that gets "hot" with favorable match ups generally does well. It is much better to be riding into March on a high note, not coming off a sub-par outing. The general consensus is that this is Kentucky's tournament to lose. They are the most talented and heralded team in the nation. They have a player, Anthony Davis, who could very well win freshman of the year and the Naismith College Player of the Year. (On an unrelated note Davis also bears a striking resemblance to Bert from Sesame Street). Kentucky's roster is full of future NBA lottery selections, if there is any favorite in this tournament then it is Kentucky. Yet, this exact reason that Kentucky will not win the championship AND lose to Wichita State in the Sweet 16.
Now if your still reading (Which is dubious on two accounts, the first is the assumption that anyone actually reads this and the second is the assumption that you didn't leave the site at my absurd prediction) then you probably want some kind of tangible statistic to back up my crazy claim. Now there isn't one single smoking gun statistic that can prove me right. Kentucky has a better record, plays in a better conference, has more Top 25 wins and has a staggering 16 blowouts (wins by over 19 points). These "glamour" statistics look impressive on paper, but then again all of Kentucky's statistics look impressive on paper. A couple of statistics really jump from the page, Kentucky is fourth in points per possession, first in blocked shots per game and sixteenth in field goal percentage. Their defense is even more impressive ranking seventh in the nation in opponent’s points per possession, and first in FG percentage, True Shooting percentage and Effective FG percentage. No matter how you slice it Kentucky is the most dominantteam in the nation, but notice who isn't too far behind them in the 2012 Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings. If you guessed (most likely just read) Wichita State then you are right.
So why is a team that's ranked tenth in the nation by some of the most sophisticated statistics only a 5th seed? Well the easiest answer is that its Wichita State, a name that doesn't exactly scream basketball pedigree. They play in a mid major conference (the Missouri Valley) and they don't have a single player who garners the attention that Kentucky's stars do. Don't let this lack of attention fool you, Wichita State is a big time team and despite the odds they have a legitimate chance to make it to the Final Four. If there is one thing Wichita State can do, it is score the basketball. In fact they rank tenth in points per possession, twelve in Effective FG percentage, tenth in True Shooting Percentage and they are a top 25 free throw shooting team. It doesn't matter that they play in the Missouri Valley (which is a very respectable conference) they can score on anyone. Senior guard Joe Ragland is number one in the nation in true shooting percentage at a staggering 69.9%( I will give you a moment to pick your jaw from the floor..... all set? Good). Not only can he shoot, he doesn't turn the ball over, committing 1.9 turnovers per game. Ragland's match up will be the much maligned freshmen point guard, Marquis Teague. Unlike like the most recent John Calipari point guards (Derek Rose, Tyreke Evans, John Wall, and Bradon Knight) Teague has not had a stellar freshmen season. Teague shoots an abysmal 47.8 True Shooting percentage and an even worse Effective FG percentage at 43.9. To add salt to the wound Teague commits 2.765 turnovers a game and isn't exactly a defensive stopper. If Kentucky has one weakness, it is at point guard. Wichita State knows this weakness and will exploit it.
Wichita State also has a big man to compliment the best shooter in the nation. Garrett Stutz is a 7 footer who is the anchor of the Shockers (that's their actual nickname, its like they are destined to beat Kentucky) front court. Stutz shoots surprisingly well from the free throw line, coming in at 82.1%, but it is the defensive glass that Stutz makes his name. Stutz has the fourteenth best defensive rebound percentage in the nation, coming in at 26.6% which is actually better then Anthony Davis's defensive rebounded percentage (23%). This allows Wichita State to control the glass, if you add this with their offensive proficiently and their solid defensive stats, the Shockers are primed to knock off Kentucky.
However, the biggest knock on Kentucky is their youth. Like most John Calipari teams Kentucky is freshmen heavy, which comes at a price. Since the NCAA has awarded a freshmen player of the year only one time has that freshmen gone on to lead his team to the championship (Carmelo Anthony in 2003). The bad news keeps on coming for Kentucky because only four teams (Georgetown in 1984, Kansas in 1988, Duke in 1992 and Duke in 2001) have won with the Nasimith Player of the Year on their roster. This spells trouble for potential (but lets be honest he is going to win) POY Anthony Davis and his Wildcats. Wichita State is a senior laden team that has experience and a hunger to go far in this tournament. Most, if not all, of the players on their roster will not play in the NBA so for them this is their last chance at basketball glory. Kentucky is full of future NBA stars who may see further glory down the road. Kentucky's losses on the year have come to teams that they overlooked, a position Wichita State is usually in. Wichita State will be the underdog if they make it to play Kentucky ( which is not a lock, Wichita State needs to go through a good VCU team and potentially Indiana) which will give them an "us against the world" mentality, a mindset that is very dangerous in March. The NCAA Tournament is the place where Cinderella teams cement their names in basketball lore. There have been the dramatic out of no where runs by Butler, VCU, George Mason, NC State, Villanova and this year Wichita State will join those ranks. So make your picks, play it safe, go chalk and pick Kentucky to win the title, just don't tell me that I didn't warn you.
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