The Miami Heat Free Throw Conundrum

Last nights Heat vs Celtics game was, quite simply put, a game for the ages. Last nights game, like many classic games, seemed to be played in different acts. In Act 1 the Celtics jumped out to an early lead, snatching the momentum away from the Heat. Act 2 featured the Heat storming back, eventually taking the lead heading into the 4th quarter, however, like most great dramas the ending was far from over. The Celtics clawed their way back in Act 3 to tie the game and force overtime. In Act 4 (overtime) the Heat proved to be too much for the Celtics and took a 2-0 series lead. In a game that should be remembered for Rajon Rondo's inspiring play or Lebron James' brilliance all people could talk about was the officiating, much like in Game 1 in which the Celtics were called for 5 technical fouls. A look at the great Bill Simmons's twitter page shows that most of the recent tweets consist of him attacking the officiating, particularly the free throw discrepancies. Last night Miami attempted a staggering 47 FT's to Boston's 29, Boston also had 15 more fouls called on them. The biggest call of the night was actually a no call as Rondo was hit in the face on a drive to the basket. The miss, coupled with Rondo laying on the floor, allowed Miami to go 5-4 on the other end which resulted in a dunk by Udonis Haslem to give the Heat a 2 point lead. In a night where the entire Twittersphere theorized on how the NBA is "rigged" this game only seemed to add fuel to the fire. This got me thinking whether or not Miami actually benefits more from officiated in the playoffs than the remaining teams?

So, because I had nothing at all to do today, I went through every boxscore for the remaining teams playoff games and calculated (well Excel calculated) their FT attempts, opponent FT attempts, foul against and opponents fouls. After gathering the data I then compared each of the remaining teams, Miami, Boston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and saw that Miami had the largest FT differential by far.

In Round 1 agains't the New York Knicks the Heat attempted 30.2 FT's a game compared to the Knicks 21.8 FT's per game, this differential of 8.4 FT would be substantially higher then the largest FT differential during the regular season (being the Nuggets with 6.2 per game). At first glance this seems to make sense, the Heat have players who attack the basket while the Knicks are often content with shooting jumpers. However, the Heat averaged 36.4 points in the paint during the series and the Knicks averaged 33.6 points in the paint. In Game 1 of the series where Miami had 33 FT attempts (with the Knicks having 11) New York actually scored more points in the paint than Miami (28 to 26). Now this is is no way why the Knicks lost the series, the Heat were by far the better team, but it is interesting to note the rather larger FT differential.

In Round 2 against the Pacers the FT differential shrunk dramatically to 2.17 (27 FT's per game for Miami and 24.8 FT per game for Indiana) which was more on par with Miami's regular season differential of 2.1. Overall in the postseason, including the first two games of the Conference Finals, Miami has a FT differential of 6.85 FT per game, which would have been the highest in the regular season. The next highest in the playoffs of the remaining teams is San Antonio with a differential of .333 FT attempts per game. In fact Boston and OKC have negative FT differential, with -2.76 and -.55 respectively. San Antonio and Oklahoma City have seen their FT differential decrease from the regular season while Boston has seen it increased by a paltry .14 attempts. Miami is the only team to see a substantial rise in FT differential with a 4.75 FT attempt increase.

A common argument is that Miami simply drives to the paint more than the remaining teams, shots within the paint are more likely to draw contact and thus lead to the increase in FT attempts. At first glance it would seem that this argument is true, of the remaining teams Miami had the third worst 3 point FG% (1 percentage point above the Thunder) and shot the third fewest 3's (.6 more than Boston). Miami is a team that relies on dribble penetration and attacking the basket in order to score. Yet, with this being said, Miami scored  fewer points in the paint than the Spurs and have scored just a little more than the Thunder. The Spurs average 47.5 points in the paint while Miami averages 40.7 points in the paint (OKC has averaged 37.4). Yet, despite this differential, the Spurs averaged 22.5 FT attempts in the first two rounds and through Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals they have averaged 30 FT attempts which is still below Miami's 35 FT in the Eastern Conference Finals. Oklahoma City has averaged 23.75 FT attempts in the first two rounds and 29.5 FT attempts in the Conference finals, this is considerably lower than Miami's FT attempts in the playoffs. Boston, while having much fewer points in the paint, has averaged 20.9 FT attempts per game.

Miami is the only team of the four remaining to never attempt fewer than 18 free throws a game, every other team has gone below this mark at some point. Miami is also the only team to not have a negative FT differential in any round of the playoffs, the Spurs had one in the first round, the Celtics had one in the second round and the Thunder have had a negative differential throughout the playoffs. Miami also draws more fouls than any of the remaining teams. Miami draws an average of 24.9 fouls a game compared to 22.5 for the Spurs, 19.4 for the Celtics and 21.3 for the Thunder.

Blaming the officials is one of the easiest cop outs in sports, however, there is some merit to the claims that Miami receives favorable calls. Miami has been attempting the most free throws per game and also have drawn the most fouls called. Now this isn't a sign of a conspiracy by the league to let Miami win, but it is a trend that deserves to be monitored. Free throws are called free for a reason, they are an easy and integral way that teams can build leads or comeback. If Miami continues to enjoy the large FT and foul differential then they will continue to be a near impossible matchup in the playoffs.

Doomsday Scenario for the Yankees

Let me start off this blog with an OH MY GOD MARIANO CANNOT BE HURT. DEAR GOD WHY WOULD THIS HAPPEN. TAKE ANYBODY, TAKE GARCIA HE ISN'T DOING ANYTHING. TAKE ME, JUST FOR THE LOVE OF EVERYTHING THAT IS HOLY DON'T TAKE MARIANO.

I'm glad that's off my chest, let's proceed.

Losing Mariano Rivera is the absolute worst injury that the Yankees could endure. Losing any hitter in the Yankees lineup would hurt, but the Yankees have a deep enough bench and a deep enough wallet to be able to find a suitable replacement. Eduardo Nunez could replace Jeter, A-Rod and even Cano or Swisher if the Yankees were ever in that situation. Granderson would be the trickiest position to fill because the Yankees don't have anyone on their roster, who is healthy, that could play center, but they would manage.

Any starting pitcher, outside of Sabathia, would be relatively easy to fill, especially because no one has really stepped up. Ivan Nova has finally lost a start, Phil Hughes is proving that his 2010 18 win campaign was a fluke and Hiroki Kuroda is still trying to figure out a new league. CC would obviously be an awful situation, but not an impossible situation. While he has been one of the leagues most reliable pitchers the last three years (pitching 230 plus innings while never having a FIP above 3.54) he is not indispensable. The 2004 Yankees made it to the ALCS with a starting rotation without a 15 game winner or a pitcher with an ERA under 4.00. (Granted this cost the Yankees a World Series trip and probably another... you know what lets just leave that series alone... forever). If Sabathia went down the Yankees could call up a post retirement Andy Pettitte to see what he has or even Manuel Banuelos and have a patchwork rotation.

All of these scenarios would significantly impact the Yankees chances of first off making the playoffs and second off winning another world series, but they aren't nearly as bad as losing Mo. With no offense to Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera was the most important and best member of the core four. The Yankees would have never won five World Series titles with anyone else at closer. It has been written a million times, but Rivera's post seasons numbers are just off the charts.

In the five years that the Yankees won a World Series with the core four Mariano posted FIP's of 2.82 (1996), 1.94 (1998), 1.92 (1999), 3.07 (2000) and 2.28 (2009). In his playoff career Rivera has a 2.23 FIP (that includes a FIP of 8.61 in 1997), a .13 HR/9 ( he has only allowed 2 career playoff homeruns that's incredible), and a K/BB of 5.24. Check out this graph comparing him to Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley, Rivera destroys them, those graphs are only for the regular season they would even more astounding if they were for the post season. David Robertson will replace Rivera if the injury is serious and would probably do a very good job. In fact the Yankees should shut Rivera down until September, they can manage a regular season without him that is doable. However, if the Yankees want to add another World Series pennant then they need a healthy Rivera plain and simple.